We’re formally lower than every week away from the Oscars 2026. This will probably be the place we lastly be taught what motion pictures will win within the 24 classes, with Sinners and One Battle After One other positioned as the 2 heavyweights after one of the aggressive awards seasons in recent times.
Forward of the 98th Academy Awards ceremony, one of the frequent methods to take part within the occasion is by filling out particular person prediction ballots. Whether or not it is for private enjoyment, attempting to win a contest at a celebration, or one thing else, you may absolutely need to make as knowledgeable choices as potential when making your profitable picks.
And whereas the Oscars all the time ship some surprises, with “upset” winners coming that require having religion in a movie to accurately predict it, stats are additionally a bit of the puzzle. There’s 97 years of Academy Awards historical past to contemplate, in addition to tendencies inside current years, different awards, and extra.
That is why I’ve compiled a listing of 70 stats that may assist give you some context as you make your closing Oscar predictions, as I will be doing later this week as my Oscar winner predictions will probably be up to date with closing evaluation.
Greatest Image Stats
1. There have been 61 situations the place probably the most nominated film has received Greatest Image. However its solely occurred thrice within the final 10 years. This yr, Sinners hopes to be the 62nd instance after its record-breaking 16 nominations.
2. 88 out of 97 Greatest Image winners received at the very least two different Oscar classes, with seven wins the best mark within the final 15 years (Oppenheimer and All the things All over the place All At As soon as).
3. Successful both Screenplay class is vital to a movie profitable Greatest Image. This has occurred 62 instances in 97 years. Class favorites, Sinners and One Battle After One other, hope to make it 63 of 98.
4. Greatest Modifying is one other robust connection level, with 36 of 91 winners occurring to win this class. It is occurred the final three years, too, strengthening the overlap.
5. Solely six motion pictures have ever received Greatest Image with no Greatest Director nomination. That hurts Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, and Practice Goals.
6. One Battle After One other enters the Oscars with probably the most precursor wins in related classes, with 40.
7. Successful both essential Golden Globe class helps right here, because the awards exhibits have matched 51 of 83 instances. That helps this yr’s Greatest Movement Image – Drama winner, Hamnet, and Greatest Movement Image – Musical or Comedy winner, One Battle After One other.
8. The strongest precursor for Greatest Image is on the Producers Guild of America Awards, the place 18 of the final 25 winners have matched. This yr, that was One Battle After One other.
9. Successful on the Administrators Guild of America Awards can be a powerful indicator, as there have been 17 matches since 2000. That was One Battle After One other, too.
10. There’s additionally historical past with the Greatest Solid class on the Actor Awards predicting Greatest Image, as they’ve matched 50% of the time because the introduction of the class in 1995. Sinners received that award this yr.
Greatest Director Stats
11. All through historical past, profitable Greatest Director is usually straight linked to a movie profitable Greatest Image. The identical movie has received each classes 70 of 97 instances general.
12. The connection between Image and Director has decreased ever so barely since 2000. These classes have matched 16 instances throughout this stretch, together with the final three years.
13. The Administrators Guild of America Awards are the highest precursor for this class, because the Oscars have solely awarded completely different winners eight instances since 1948. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After One other) received it this yr.
14. Nevertheless, there have been extra variations currently. 5 of the eight variations have come within the final 30 years. The final time was 2019, when Sam Mendes (1917) misplaced to Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) on the Oscars. That might give Ryan Coogler (Sinners) and others hope nonetheless.
15. Paul Thomas Anderson enters the evening with probably the most precursor wins for steering awards, with 36.
16. He has swept by way of the largest precursors: DGA, GG, CCA, and BAFTA. He may develop into the tenth particular person to win these 4 awards and an Oscar.
17. The one time somebody has received DGA, GG, CCA, and BAFTA and never received the Greatest Director Oscar got here in 2012, when Ben Affleck received these precursors. He was not even nominated for Greatest Director, although.
Greatest Actor Stats
18. The strongest precursor for Greatest Actor is identical class on the Actor Awards. They’ve matched 24 of 31 instances because the award’s introduction. That is a degree in Michael B. Jordan’s favor after his win for Sinners.
19. But, the Oscars and Actors have differed twice within the final 5 years. That retains hope alive for Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After One other), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
20. If Chalamet does win, he’ll be the second-youngest ever winner of Greatest Actor.
21. The common age for a Greatest Actor winner is 45.2 years outdated, as voters usually make male actors wait longer. MBJ and Moura are closest to that vary, as they will be 39.1 years outdated and 49.7 years outdated when the ceremony occurs.
22. Moura has a victory at one of many different huge precursors, Greatest Actor – Drama on the Golden Globes. That winner has matched with the Oscar 17 instances since 2000.
23. It is also notable that Moura can be the primary Greatest Actor to return from a non-English film since 1997, when Roberto Benigni received for Life Is Stunning.
24. Jordan is seeking to develop into solely the sixth Black winner of Greatest Director, becoming a member of Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Jamie Foxx, Forest Whitaker, and Will Smith.
25. Chalamet enters the Oscars with probably the most Greatest Actor precursor wins, with 24.
26. This consists of profitable Greatest Actor – Musical or Comedy on the Golden Globes, which has solely matched with the Oscars twice since 2000.
27. The opposite win got here at CCA, which has 17 matches since 2000.
Greatest Actress Stats
28. Like Greatest Actor, the Actor Awards are the strongest precursor to contemplate right here. They’ve matched 21 of 31 instances, however solely twice within the final 5 years. Jessie Buckley received for Hamnet already.
29. In truth, Buckley has just about locked up her Oscar. She’s the tenth actress ever to win at Golden Globes, CCA, BAFTA, and Actors. The earlier 9 all received the Oscar for Greatest Actress, too.
30. That is why it ought to come as little shock that Buckley enters Oscars evening with probably the most Greatest Actress precursor wins, with 38.
31. The one one to essentially give her competitors is Rose Byrne, as she received Greatest Actress – Musical or Comedy on the Golden Globes.
32. The Greatest Actress winner tends to be barely youthful, with the typical age of the winner being 37.6 years outdated. Buckley is a yr youthful, at 36.2 years outdated, whereas Emma Stone is the closest to that age at 37.3 years outdated. Renate Reinsve is simply older at 38.3 years outdated.
33. Talking of Stone, ought to she pull off a win, she’ll develop into a three-time Oscar winner. She’d be the fifth lady to take action, becoming a member of Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, Ingrid Bergman, and Frances McDormand.
Greatest Supporting Actor Stats
34. The Actor Awards stay probably the most predictive precursor for this appearing class, as they’ve matched 22 of 31 instances. This consists of 9 straight. Sean Penn (One Battle After One other) received this yr, making him the favourite.
35. The following strongest predictor is the Golden Globe, which has matched 20 instances since 2000. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Worth) received the class this yr.
36. BAFTA is one other good indicator for this class, because the Oscars have matched 17 instances since 2000. This marked Penn’s first main victory of the season.
37. If he wins this class, Penn will even be a three-time Oscar winner. He’ll be the fourth male to take action, becoming a member of Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Walter Brennan. It’s going to be his first in Greatest Supporting Actor.
38. But, Benicio del Toro (One Battle After One other) enters the evening with probably the most precursor wins for this class at 22, due to dominating with critics teams early on.
39. Whereas Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) holds onto his CCA win as a significant precursor victory, del Toro and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) didn’t win something between the Globes, Actors, CCA, and BAFTA. Nobody has received Greatest Supporting Actor with out at the very least a kind of wins since 1998.
40. In case it occurs, Lindo can be the seventh Black actor to win Greatest Supporting Actor.
Greatest Supporting Actress Stats
41. As soon as extra, the Actor Awards are the important thing precursor, matching the Oscar winner 23 of 31 instances in Greatest Supporting Actress. This consists of 15 of the final 16 years and 21 instances since 2000. That is a significant level in favor of Amy Madigan (Weapons).
42. Bolstering her case is that she has probably the most precursor wins, with 38, from all through the season.
43. This consists of her win at CCA, which has matched with the Oscars 18 instances since 2000.
44. Moreover, BAFTA has the identical match historical past, which might be used to again selecting Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners).
45. Nevertheless, we’ve to return to 2008 to discover a Greatest Supporting Actress winner whose solely main precursor win was at BAFTA, as that is the way it was for Penélope Cruz when she received for Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
46. The opposite main contender right here is Teyana Taylor (One Battle After One other) after profitable the Golden Globe. The winner has gone on to additionally win the Oscar 16 instances since 2000, nevertheless it’s by no means been their solely main win throughout that span, as is the case for Taylor.
47. Ought to Mosaku or Taylor take residence the golden statue, although, they will develop into the eleventh Black actress to win this class.
Screenplay Stats
48. As talked about earlier than, profitable one of many Screenplay classes might help a movie take residence Greatest Image, too. The extra predictive winner between Tailored and Authentic, although, is the previous. The Greatest Tailored Screenplay winner has gone on to win Greatest Image 41 instances.
49. When it comes to precursors to know, the Writers Guild of America Awards are the largest. The Tailored winner has matched with the Oscar 25 of 42 instances, together with 17 instances since 2000. One Battle After One other appears to be like to maintain that robust connection alive.
50. The WGA’s Authentic Screenplay winner has additionally predicted the Oscar winner 25 of 42 instances. This consists of 16 instances since 2000. Sinners received right here beforehand, establishing it as the favourite.
51. Sinners has probably the most precursor wins for Authentic Screenplay, 41 wins.
52. One Battle After One other has probably the most precursor wins for Tailored Screenplay, 46 wins.
53. Ryan Coogler is seeking to develop into the second-ever Black winner in Authentic Screenplay, becoming a member of Jordan Peele (Get Out).
Different Class Stats
54. KPop Demon Hunters enters with probably the most precursor wins for Greatest Animated Characteristic, 44.
55. Sentimental Worth enters with probably the most precursors for Greatest Worldwide Characteristic Movie, 28.
56. The winner of Greatest Worldwide Characteristic Movie all the time goes to a movie with a Greatest Image nominee in years the place there are one, positioning Sentimental Worth or The Secret Agent because the most probably winners.
57. Sinners has probably the most precursor wins for Greatest Cinematography, 40.
58. If it wins, Autumn Durald Arkapaw would be the first feminine to win Cinematography.
59. Nevertheless, One Battle After One other holds a powerful probability after profitable on the American Society of Cinematographers for Michael Bauman’s work. That guild has produced 18 matching winners in 39 earlier years.
60. Sinners additionally has probably the most precursor wins for Greatest Casting, 31.
61. Frankenstein is within the lead for Greatest Costume Design after 19 precursor wins.
62. Nevertheless, Sinners‘ Ruth E. Carter can be a two-time winner of the class, so hold her in thoughts.
63. Guillermo del Toro’s monster film additionally holds probably the most precursors for Greatest Make-up and Hairstyling, at 25 wins.
64. F1 is positioned as a powerful Greatest Sound winner after 13 precursor wins.
65. Ludwig Göransson’s work on Sinners has made him the favourite for Greatest Authentic Rating with 49 precursor wins.
66. One Battle After One other enters with probably the most precursor wins for Greatest Movie Modifying, 23.
67. KPop Demon Hunters has a one-win lead over Sinners for precursors for Greatest Authentic Track.
68. The Excellent Neighbor has probably the most precursor wins for Greatest Documentary Characteristic at 34.
69. Avatar: Fireplace and Ash is the Greatest Visible Results frontrunner with 25 precursor wins.
70. Diane Warren is hoping to lastly win her first Oscar for Greatest Authentic Track. She’s presently 0-16 and has been nominated for 9 consecutive years.
These stats shouldn’t be the one factor you base your Oscars 2026 predictions on. However hopefully they assist at the very least make a couple of classes simpler or can act as tie-breakers in particularly shut races.
8/10
- Location
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Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
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March 15, 2026
- Web site
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https://www.oscars.org/