Oscars 2025: Best Actor Winner Predictions

The Best Actor nominees for the Oscars 2025 make up an elite group of contenders hoping to win their first or second Academy Award. The Academy Award for the best lead male actor is one of the biggest awards each year, which is no different in 2025. Following in the footsteps of Cillian Murphy’s breakthrough win for Oppenheimer in 2024, there is an entirely new crop of performers among the nominees in all Oscars 2025 categories. The official nominees are Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice).

There is usually plenty of overlap between the actors who are nominated for Best Actor and the selection of films contending for Best Picture. Since those ten movies are deemed the best of the best, it’s understandable that some of the best performances of the year are included in them. This year, the Oscars 2025 Best Picture nominated movies are responsible for only three of the Best Actor nominees. And thanks to how the awards season has played out so far, predicting the Best Actor Oscar winner this year is a close call to make.

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Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

His First Oscar Nomination

Sebastian Stan has continued to find favor throughout awards season thanks to his performance in The Apprentice, and that’s now put him among the Best Actor nominees. The recognition for his portrayal of Donald Trump comes after Stan won Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes for A Different Man. Instead of recognizing that performance again, the Academy voters put the spotlight on The Apprentice, which Stan was also nominated for at the Golden Globes.

Stan has already proven he’s a capable dramatic actor who can deliver performances worthy of awards recognition on TV with Pam & Tommy. Now, he’s in a position where he could do the same with The Apprentice. The odds are not in Stan’s favor that he’ll win the Oscar, but it would be a mistake to overlook his nomination after how well The Apprentice did. It’s a hit with the actor’s branch of the Academy, as Jeremy Strong also got a Best Supporting Actor nomination. Stan’s portrayal of the now-re-elected President could’ve worked in his favor in a different year.

Ultimately, there’s no reasonable case to be made for Stan to win Best Actor. He repeatedly missed out on opportunities to win for this performance and strengthen his position. While he won the Golden Globe for A Different Man, that’s not the performance the Oscars recognized. Stan has lost at BAFTA, Spirit Awards, and now SAG. Those nominations are worth celebrating if you’re Sebastian Stan after Hollywood distanced itself from The Apprentice. His Oscar nomination is a huge accomplishment in that regard. There’s no shot that he’s winning the Best Actor Oscar this year.

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Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Domingo Got His First Oscar Nomination Last Year

Colman Domingo is back in awards contention yet again, and he’s still chasing the Best Actor win. He had a breakthrough role as far as the Oscars are concerned in 2023 with Rustin. Domingo’s powerful performance in the biopic drew strong support from voters as he received his first Best Actor Oscar nomination. While he ultimately did not win the category, it suggested that it would only take another great performance for him to be back in the race.

Domingo is an Oscar nominee for Best Actor in back-to-back years

Thanks to Sing Sing‘s debut at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2023, Domingo was in a good spot for another nomination before officially losing at the 2024 Oscars. A24 held off on releasing Sing Sing until 2024 so it would be a contender for the Oscars 2025, likely partially due to the support Domingo already had for a nomination for Rustin. While the film’s rollout could be questioned, the strategy ultimately worked. Domingo is an Oscar nominee for Best Actor in back-to-back years.

The unfortunate news for Domingo is that the early success he had in awards season has evaporated. He notably won the Gotham Awards’ Best Actor, giving him his first major win of the season. That was thought to be a victory that could catapult him to winning an Oscar. While he continued to gain recognition from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards, he failed to win at each event. The lack of recent success and Sing Sing‘s miss in Best Picture has left Domingo near the back of the pack this year.

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Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

He’s A Two-Time Oscar Nominee

The Oscars 2025 Best Actor category could’ve been the time for Ralph Fiennes to become an Oscar winner. Fiennes’ performance is one of the highlights of Conclave for just about everyone who sees it. His work has resonated with Academy voters and delivered a Best Actor Oscar nomination. He was even our predicted winner in the category early on in the race. Although that is no longer the case, to no fault of his own, there would be a good argument to be made that he should win the Oscar in other years.

He’s gone nearly thirty years since his last Oscar nomination

One element that should work in Ralph Fiennes’ favor is the narrative behind him winning. He’s been nominated twice before by the Academy. His first Oscar nomination came in 1994 for Schindler’s List in Best Supporting Actor. He followed that up with a Best Actor nomination three years later for The English Patient. Despite the overall excellence of his career, it’s been nearly thirty years since his last Oscar nomination and a win has still eluded him. The Oscars could change that if he managed to win for Conclave – but that will not happen at this stage.

Although Conclave did well with its Oscar nominations and has picked up some major wins elsewhere, Ralph Fiennes has not managed to steal the thunder from Adrien Brody or Timothée Chalamet. Even with the film picking up steam for a potential Best Picture win, it’s unlikely that will be enough to push its lead actor to an individual victory. He lost at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG. Fiennes even failed to win Best Actor at BAFTA, which was arguably his best spot to do so. His lacking performance at precursors does not inspire confidence he can win.

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Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

He’s Already A Best Actor Oscar Winner

Adrien Brody is back in the Best Actor race for the Oscars 2025. His role in The Brutalist has put him firmly in contention to win the Academy Award once again. Adrien Brody won the Best Actor Oscar in 2003 for The Pianist, and he made history by becoming the youngest actor to win an Oscar. That would have seemingly positioned him as a frequent contender for more nominations and wins, but that has not happened. The Brutalist is Brody’s first Oscar nomination since winning the award over two decades earlier.

Adrien Brody was 29 years old when he set the record for the youngest Oscar-winning actor

The Brutalist is a strong Oscar contender in many categories, and it’s becoming a stronger predicted winner in many. That could favor Adrien Brody more if The Brutalist becomes a film that sweeps through the Oscars. He could follow a similar route to victory as Cillian Murphy did last year with Oppenheimer, as being the star of the potential Best Picture winner helps in theory. However, only 27 Best Actor winners have come from the film that also won Best Picture.

The real argument to be made in Brody’s favor comes from his overall dominance during the awards season. He got a pivotal early win at the Golden Globes for Best Actor – Drama, beating out Chalamet. Brody continued to defeat the rising star at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and with various major critics groups. His only real slip-up came at SAG. That loss keeps Brody from being a definitive pick to win Best Actor at the Oscars. While I am not currently predicting a win for The Brutalist‘s star, it’s completely understandable to think he’ll win based on his track record.

Brody is undeniably one of the top two contenders to win Best Actor

It also seems as though Brody has mostly overcome The Brutalist‘s AI controversy. The film used an AI program to change a few parts of Brody’s dialogue to make the Hungarian language sound authentic. While it’s a minor use in the grand scheme of the film, there was pushback to the idea of rewarding a performance with any AI tweaking involved. His and A24’s ability to smooth out the situation with voters has kept him near the front of the pack. Brody is undeniably one of the top two contenders to win Best Actor. He’s just not my predicted winner.

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Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Chalamet Is Predicted To Win His First Oscar

Timothée Chalamet earned his second Best Actor Oscar nomination thanks to A Complete Unknown. He plays iconic musician Bob Dylan in the movie, directed by James Mangold. The transformational performance by the young Hollywood star, as he puts his spin on Dylan’s talking and singing voice, helped him land a nomination. The Academy has a soft spot for biopics, especially when they involve a celebrity as famous as Bob Dylan, which is another point in Chalamet’s favor. That’s why we’re predicting Chalamet to win Best Actor.

A Complete Unknown is Chalamet’s first Oscar nomination since 2018 when he entered the race thanks to Call Me By Your Name. He’s only become a bigger star in the years since, with him balancing roles with more obvious Oscar potential like A Complete Unknown with his first franchise, Dune. Although his performance as Paul Atreides is great in Dune: Part Two, voters favored a more traditional Oscars movie to give Chalamet this nomination. This could still be seen as a chance for the Oscars to effectively acknowledge the overall work he did in 2024 between the two films.

Gary Oldman beat Timothée Chalamet for the Best Actor Oscar in 2018

Predicting Chalamet to win Best Actor at the Oscars is more so a gut feeling based on recent developments than something that can really be backed up by the overall outcome of awards season. Losing the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and other precursors did little to help his standing. However, Chalamet’s win at SAG Awards is a game changer. It shows there is a lot of support for the young star among other actors. And since the actor’s branch of the Academy is the largest, what they think really matters.

The Oscars and SAG have only disagreed on the Best Actor winner six times in last 30 years. Notably, Adrien Brody is one of those examples, as he lost SAG but still won the Oscar. Chalamet has had an excellent awards season campaign and voiced his desire to be one of the greats in his SAG acceptance speech. While Oscars voting is already closed and won’t be impacted by that speech, he’s seen as the next major star Hollywood has and resonates with people. Winning Best Actor at the Oscars 2025 would be monumental and break records.