Frontrunners, Contenders, & Potential Winner

A few of Hollywood’s greatest stars will vie to win Greatest Actor on the Oscars 2026, one 12 months after Adrien Brody was awarded for The Brutalist. I am excited to as soon as once more be answerable for monitoring this race all through awards season for ScreenRant and giving our tackle who’s the frontrunner, who’s rising, and who’s falling.

As typical, there’s a robust mixture of actors with differing careers and awards expertise set to be main gamers in Greatest Actor. Earlier winners like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis have been linked to the class ever since their respective motion pictures had been introduced. Timothée Chalamet is in an analogous boat due to his ascension via the trade.

Having some Oscars historical past is good, however voters prefer to unfold the nominations round and provides recognition to actors for the primary time too. That is the place huge names like Dwayne Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, and Jeremy Allen White may change into elements. The identical could also be true for Wagner Moura or Channing Tatum.

There’s nonetheless loads of time left earlier than the precise Greatest Actor nominations are introduced on January 22, 2026, however the race is already beginning to take form. That is how I see issues at this level, however preserve checking again, as I will probably be updating this because the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Greatest Actor Nomination Frontrunners

With solely 5 male performances eligible to be nominated by the Academy for Greatest Actor, the extremely aggressive subject will embody a number of robust contenders who miss the lower. The response to those performances, the awards they’ve acquired, and Oscar historical past assist act as a information. Right here is my present Oscars 2026 Greatest Actor nominations prediction (in alphabetical order):

Dwayne Johnson is poised to obtain his first Oscar nomination due to The Smashing Machine. The dramatic flip is what many have been ready for him to do for years. By portraying real-life fighter Mark Kerr within the biopic, Johnson proves he is obtained far more to supply Hollywood than headlining motion blockbusters with big budgets however little creativeness.

His efficiency is the standout aspect in The Smashing Machine and will play with the Academy. He is one of many trade’s greatest stars, and I’ve little doubt that he’ll pull out all the required stops to marketing campaign laborious and safe this nomination. That pursuit, paired with a career-best efficiency, ought to make Johnson an Academy Award nominee.

If we wish to poke holes in Johnson’s probabilities, it may include this profession pivot. Some will not be prepared to purchase him as a dramatic actor and wish to look ahead to him to do it once more to provide him this honor. The movie’s good-but-not-great reception may additionally ding him doubtlessly.

Whereas The Rock is gunning for his first nomination, Leonardo DiCaprio appears well-positioned to obtain his sixth appearing nomination. It is laborious to imagine that just about a decade has handed since his final and solely Oscar win, for The Revenant​​​​​​. It looks like he is in place to earn his seventh nomination with One Battle After One other.

DiCaprio delivers an extremely memorable efficiency as Bob, making the nomination legitimate based mostly on his work alone. His attachment to one of many strongest Oscars 2026 Greatest Image contenders will not harm, although, and might be what propels him previous any skepticism.

The query is whether or not this might change into one other Killers of the Flower Moon state of affairs for him, the place he is a part of a film with double-digit nominations, however he is ignored.

The Academy has a possibility to acknowledge a number of of the fantastic One Battle After One other performances. Nominations for Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, or Regina Corridor may go away DiCaprio on the outs if voters wish to acknowledge different movies extra.

Michael B. Jordan deserves to be in Greatest Actor and earn his first Oscar nomination for his work in Sinners. Enjoying the twin roles of Smoke and Stack wasn’t simply technologically spectacular for Ryan Coogler to tug off, however Jordan delivered two nuanced, emotional, and layered performances without delay.

The power of his work speaks for itself, and Sinners‘ place as a large Oscar contender ought to assist his trigger. He is arguably obtained one of the best shot at a nomination of your complete forged. His case might be solidified if critics teams and different award our bodies acknowledge him all through the season.

But, questions stay over whether or not he’ll get in. Jordan might want to discover time in his busy schedule to marketing campaign for this nomination. Even when he does, it is attainable voters ignore honoring a single particular person performer and as a substitute shine a highlight on the entire forged via the newly launched Greatest Casting class, which awards the casting director, not the ensemble forged.

These are the one performances from my predications that may or have been seen by the general public at giant. This makes Marty Supreme‘s launch in December and The Secret Agent‘s arrival in November huge moments for Chalamet and Moura to solidify their locations as main contenders.

Moura is the lesser-known star on this group, however he is the one one who has already achieved some degree of recognition for his potential Oscar-nominated efficiency. When The Secret Agent premiered at Cannes, he was the recipient of the Greatest Actor award. This isn’t a serious precursor for the Oscars, sometimes, however it’s given Moura an early benefit over different actors.

Chalamet is a extra recognized commodity, however Marty Supreme is a whole unknown. No person has seen it, so there’s an opportunity Josh Safdie’s movie does not join as strongly as anticipated. But when Chalamet delivers a career-best efficiency, he may both fly above the movie’s combined reception or be the face of a attainable Greatest Image contender.

Actors Nonetheless In The Combine

These 5 performances are removed from positive issues to get Greatest Actor nominations. Many different actors have the time and alternative to boost their place, which might inevitably push others down right here.

The group of actors who’re nonetheless very a lot alive on this race embody an amazing vary of acquainted faces. A number of years after incomes a Greatest Supporting Actor nomination for The Energy of the Canine, Jesse Plemons is trying to find a nomination for Bugonia. Ethan Hawke additionally looms as a giant contender for Blue Moon, and the narrative behind lastly making him an Academy Award winner may take him far.

Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Ship Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Practice Desires), Channing Tatum (Roofman), and Will Arnett (Is This Factor On?) are among the many group angling for his or her first Oscar nominations. Tatum may maintain an edge after receiving the Tribute Performer Award at TIFF.

Picture through Paramount Photos

Will voters go for a few of them, or may they favor extra acquainted names with Oscar historical past? Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Participant), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Brendan Fraser (Rental Household), Russell Crowe (Nuremberg), Cillian Murphy (Steve), and Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) are all earlier winners. Hugh Jackman (Track Sung Blue) is one other former nominee with a robust likelihood.

But, two different main contenders additionally stay. Daniel Day-Lewis has essentially the most Greatest Actor wins of all time, and whereas Anemone hasn’t been met with big acclaim, his efficiency and stature within the trade may nonetheless result in a nomination. Then once more, since he is not going into one other “retirement” after this, the Academy may maintain off to see what he does subsequent.

This brings us to Paul Mescal, the male lead in Hamnet, a Greatest Image favourite. He is already stunned together with his nomination within the class for Aftersun a couple of years in the past. However, it is presently unclear if Focus will marketing campaign him in Greatest Actor or Greatest Supporting Actor. It may actually go both manner, and there is a sense he may need a neater time profitable as a Lead.

The early reactions to Hamnet make Mescal’s efficiency really feel like a lock for an Oscar. It is only a matter of determining what class it would are available. If Focus decides to place him in Greatest Actor, I discover it laborious to think about he would not be one of many 5 nominees. We simply have to attend on the choice for now.

Predicted Greatest Actor Winner

Greatest Actor may actually go in a number of instructions by the point the 98th Academy Awards occur on March 15, 2026. There are arguments to be made in favor of Johnson, DiCaprio, Jordan, Chalamet, and Moura. I am even a bit conflicted on who to select as I kind this.

I can think about a world the place the Academy rewards Johnson for this dramatic flip. I can even see DiCaprio accepting a long-overdue second Academy Award, vaulting him into a distinct class with the Oscars traditionally. Jordan should have one of the best efficiency of the three from what I’ve seen.

However I’ll take a leap of religion and select Chalamet because the Greatest Actor Oscar winner this 12 months, for now. He ran an amazing marketing campaign after his nomination for A Full Unknown, a lot in order that his SAG win left me satisfied he was going to ship a shock upset on the 2025 Oscars and change into the youngest Greatest Actor winner ever.

That did not occur, however Marty Supreme is his likelihood to lastly get that recognition. The sports activities drama appears completely thrilling based mostly on the trailer, and Chalamet’s efficiency will probably be a giant purpose why the film works. A24 clearly has loads of religion in it with the late December launch, which may enable his efficiency to breathe new life into the race on the proper time.

A24 has delivered Greatest Actor wins in two of the final three years. Chalamet offers them likelihood to go three for 4 after the Oscars 2026. There’s nonetheless a lot of this season nonetheless to come back, although, so whether or not he’ll nonetheless be on this place in a couple of weeks or months stays to be seen.

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Web site

https://www.oscars.org/