UPDATE: 2025/01/05 08:03 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Mufasa Comes In Below $24M Projections By A Hair, Still Takes No. 1
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.
Mufasa: The Lion King has finally triumphed over Sonic the Hedgehog 3. The former is the photorealistic CG-animated prequel to the 2019 remake The Lion King while the latter is the third installment in the live-action franchise adapting the long-running video game series. The Mufasa release kicked off the weekend before Christmas, debuting opposite Sonic and falling behind it at No. 2 on the domestic chart for two consecutive weekends. However, it slowly closed the gap, claiming No. 1 on the daily chart on Christmas Day, Boxing Day, and New Year’s Day, as well as other individual days in between.
Per Deadline, as of Sunday morning, the box office projections for the movies’ mutual third weekend show Mufasa: The Lion King taking in a 3-day total of $23.8 million. Meanwhile, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is only projected to make $20.7 million, meaning that Mufasa has finally claimed the No. 1 spot on the domestic chart for the first time. It has accomplished this by maintaining a much stronger hold than Sonic after leaping up in its second weekend with a 3.9% week-on-week rise as opposed to Sonic‘s 38.4% drop. Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend:
# |
Title |
3-Day Total |
Cumulative (Domestic) |
---|---|---|---|
1 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
$23.8 million |
$168.6 million (weekend 3) |
2 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
$20.7 million |
$187 million (weekend 3) |
3 |
Nosferatu |
$13.2 million |
$69.4 million (weekend 2) |
4 |
Moana 2 |
$12.4 million |
$425.2 million (weekend 6) |
5 |
Wicked |
$10.2 million |
$450.7 million (weekend 7) |
While the Top 5 titles are the same as the previous weekend, Nosferatu was the only holdover title to stay in exactly the same position on the chart thanks to a $13.2 million haul that leaves it with a week-on-week drop of just 39%. This is a stellar result for a horror movie, as the genre typically has week 2 drops of 50% or more. Director Robert Eggers has made a habit of bucking this trend, as 2015’s The Witch, his previous horror title to open in wide release, only had a week 2 drop of 42.4%.
Moana 2 and Wicked, meanwhile, have followed the lead of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King, swapping positions on the chart. The Disney sequel rose from No. 5 to No. 4 with a 3-day gross of $12.4 million seeing it drop a narrow 34% from the holiday weekend. Universal’s musical adaptation grossed $10.2 million at a slightly harsher drop of 48%, falling from No. 4 to No. 5. Current projections for the latter see it legging out to an overall domestic total of $475 million, cementing its status as the highest-grossing Broadway musical adaptation of all time.
Wicked became the highest-grossing domestic Broadway adaptation by surpassing 1978’s Grease ($190 million), later doing the same worldwide by outgrossing 2008’s Mamma Mia! ($610 million).
The remainder of the Top 10 looks exactly the same, lacking any of the lively movement of the weekend’s Top 5. This sees the new releases A Complete Unknown, Babygirl, and The Fire Inside maintaining their positions at No. 6, No. 7, and No. 10 respectively, sandwiching Gladiator II at No. 8 in its seventh weekend and Homestead at No. 9 in its third. They have all dropped between 31% and 39% except Babygirl, which actually rose 3% after adding 49 theaters.
What This Means For Mufasa: The Lion King
The Movie’s Success Is Slow And Steady
This late-breaking No. 1 weekend is a huge boon after the disappointing Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend. The movie debuted significantly below expectations with a $35.4 million domestic haul, which paled in comparison to the original 2019 movie’s dazzling $191.8 million opening weekend. While the previous installment made $1.662 billion worldwide by the end of its run, this lukewarm debut for its prequel likely means that it will not even pass the billion-dollar milestone.
Holiday season releases [tend] to show slow and steady growth through the New Year.
However, the outstanding hold that the Mufasa: The Lion King box office has managed to pull off in its subsequent two weekends likely means that it will still be a success in theaters. The movie’s $150 million budget means that its break-even point is likely somewhere around $375 million worldwide, a milestone that it will easily clear by the end of the weekend. It remains to be seen how high it can climb, but so far it is taking advantage of the common habit of holiday season releases to show slow and steady growth through the New Year.
Our Take On The Weekend Box Office
Next Weekend Could Shake Things Up
So far, the chart has been dominated by Mufasa: The LIon King and the Sonic the Hedgehog 3 release over the past three weeks. This has been the case because Christmas Day saw the debuts of adult-oriented awards season fare that couldn’t compete with the blockbusters, while no new wide releases premiered the following weekend. However, both titles could see their first spark of 2025 competition from the debut of Den of Thieves: Pantera during their fourth weekend, which may not take No. 1 but could drive a wedge between Mufasa and Sonic, widening the gap between them even more.
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Source: Deadline