Now that the dust has settled following the 2024 ceremony, it’s time to turn attention toward the 2025 Oscars and the movies that are competing to secure a Best Picture nomination and campaign for a win. As surprising nominees and winners at the 2024 Oscars proved, predicting the 2025 results so far ahead of time is no easy task. However, some serious contenders for awards season have emerged as Oscars 2025 predictions for all categories begin to take shape. This includes a strong group of movies competing for one of ten Best Picture nominations.
Even heading into the 2025 Oscars season, some movies were looked at early on as major contenders. Dune: Part Two is eligible after being delayed from its original 2023 release date, while new movies from Luca Guadagnino, Yorgos Lanthimios, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Ridley Scott, Steve McQueen, and Clint Eastwood were looked at as contenders to watch out for. Of course, awards season always has a few surprises that gain momentum and end up in the Best Picture race. Ahead of the official nomination announcement on January 17, 2025, Screen Rant‘s predicted Best Picture nominees and winners look like this.
|
Predicted Best Picture 2025 Oscars Lineup |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Movie |
Studio |
Director |
|
|
1 |
Anora |
Neon |
Sean Baker |
|
2 |
Conclave |
Focus Features |
Edward Berger |
|
3 |
Emilia Pérez |
Netflix |
Jacques Audiard |
|
4 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
Brady Corbet |
|
5 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
James Mangold |
|
6 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
Jon M. Chu |
|
7 |
Dune: Part Two |
Warner Bros. |
Denis Villeneuve |
|
8 |
A Real Pain |
Searchlight Pictures |
Jesse Eisenberg |
|
9 |
The Substance |
Mubi |
Coralie Fargeat |
|
10 |
Sing Sing |
A24 |
Greg Kwedar |
Other Movies Still Contending For Best Picture
While we can only predict that ten movies will get nominations for Best Picture, there’s still time for the lineup to shift. A handful of films are still in contention and hoping to emerge as awards season continues. Movies like Hard Truths, Nickel Boys, and The Piano Lesson are looking to continue the strong momentum that is building in their favor. Meanwhile, international films like I’m Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig could break through. Nosferatu is a potential sleeper thanks to its contention in several below-the-line categories.
10
Sing Sing
Release Date: July 12, 2024
- Director
-
Greg Kwedar
- Cast
-
Colman Domingo
, Clarence Maclin
, Sean San Jose
, Paul Raci
, David Dap Giraudy
, Patrick Preme Griffin
, Mosi Eagle
, James Big E Williams
, Sean Dino Johnson
, Cornell Nate Alston
, Camillo Carmine LoVacco
, Dario Peña
, Pedro Cotto
, Miguel Valentin - Runtime
-
107 Minutes
- Studio(s)
-
Marfa Peach Company
, Edith Productions
, Black Bear - Writers
-
Clint Bentley
, Greg Kwedar
After debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2023, Sing Sing established itself as a genuine awards contender by ticking several popular Oscars boxes. The movie is based on the real-life story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Within this context, it uses a combined cast of professional actors, including former Oscar nominee Colman Domingo, and former inmates to recreate the production of an original musical, Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code.
Although the movie received strong early critical praise and has maintained a spot in the awards season discussions, it is not positioned as a likely winner. It has the shakiest holding in the Best Picture race days ahead of nominations, as symbolized by the film missing out on a PGA nomination. It would not even be a surprise if September 5, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, or another title managed to knock it out of the category altogether. That’s not predicted to happen at this stage, though, thanks to the film predicted to get recognition elsewhere.
9
The Substance
Release Date: September 20, 2024
- Director
-
Coralie Fargeat
- Cast
-
Demi Moore
, Margaret Qualley
, Dennis Quaid
, Gore Abrams
, Hugo Diego Garcia
, Olivier Raynal
, Tiffany Hofstetter
, Tom Morton
, Jiselle Burkhalter
, Axel Baille
, Oscar Lesage
, Matthew Géczy
, Philip Schurer - Writers
-
Coralie Fargeat
- Runtime
-
140 Minutes
The Substance is the biggest winner of the awards season, as Coralie Fargeat and Demi Moore’s body horror film about Hollywood and beauty has become a central part of the conversation. This includes the likelihood of it getting a Best Picture nomination. Fargeat is predicted to earn a Best Director nomination at this point, and Moore is viewed as the favorite to win Best Actress now. Throw in the film’s contention in some below-the-line categories, and it has the necessary backing to be a Best Picture contender.
There’s several other precursors that point to The Substance earning a nomination here. It was among the ten nominees at the PGAs, and the film also earned recognition at the Golden Globes for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. With its strong critical approval, surprise box office success, and its continued staying power through the season, The Substance is a longshot to win Best Picture – but a nomination is a win in and of itself.
8
A Real Pain
Release Date: November 1, 2024
- Director
-
Jesse Eisenberg
- Cast
-
Jesse Eisenberg
, Kieran Culkin
, Will Sharpe
, Jennifer Grey
, Kurt Egyiawan
, Liza Sadovy
, Daniel Oreskes
, Ellora Torchia
, Jakub Gąsowski
, Krzysztof Jaszczak
, Piotr Czarniecki
, Marek Kasprzyk - Writers
-
Jesse Eisenberg
- Runtime
-
90 Minutes
Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain could have one of the smaller nomination counts of any Best Picture nominee at the 2025 Oscars. Kieran Culkin is the Best Supporting Actor frontrunner, while Eisenberg’s script is likely to be nominated in Best Original Screenplay too. Even if those are its only two other nominations, A Real Pain has enough support that it should get into the Best Picture nomination group.
Prior to a Best Picture nomination, A Real Pain has gained recognition at the Golden Globes in Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and earned in a spot in the Top 10 Films made by the National Board of Review. This is another movie unlikely to actually win the category. But the nomination here and elsewhere should help bring some more attention to the fantastic film.
7
Dune: Part Two
Release: March 1, 2024
- Release Date
-
February 27, 2024
- Cast
-
Timothée Chalamet
, Zendaya
, Rebecca Ferguson
, Javier Bardem
, Josh Brolin
, Austin Butler
, Florence Pugh
, Dave Bautista
, Christopher Walken
, Lea Seydoux
, Stellan Skarsgård
, Charlotte Rampling
, Souheila Yacoub
, Roger Yuan
, Babs Olusanmokun
, Giusi Merli
, Kait Tenison
, Tara Breathnach
, Akiko Hitomi
, Imola Gáspár
, Elbooz Omar Ahmed Fathie
, Abdelkarim Hussein Seli Mohamed Hassanin
, Joseph Beddelem
, Xavier Alba Royo
, Rachid Abbad - Runtime
-
167 minutes
- Studio(s)
-
Legendary Pictures
- Distributor(s)
-
Warner Bros. Pictures
After an extended delay, Denis Villeneuve’s awe-inspiring Dune sequel missed out on eligibility for the 2024 Oscars. Considering its cultural impact, many felt that this was a missed opportunity. However, following huge critical and commercial success, the movie established itself as a firm favorite for the next round of awards despite releasing long before other competitors. Concluding the story of Paul Atreides and his transition from outlaw to emperor, the movie expertly weaves epic scope with a thoughtful discussion of imperialism, religion, and romance.
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History is also on Dune: Part Two‘s side to receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2025. Villeneuve’s original movie received a nomination in 2022, but it did not win. His sci-fi film Arrival also got a Best Picture nomination. With the Academy Awards voting body clear fans of his work, Dune 2 arguably surpassing what he did in the first film should enable it to get into the 2025 Best Picture race – even if its odds of winning are lower. The Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination at the Golden Globes and PGA nomination reaffirms its contending status.
6
Wicked
Release Date: November 22, 2024
- Release Date
-
November 22, 2024
- Runtime
-
160 Minutes
- Distributor(s)
-
Universal Pictures
- Director
-
Jon M. Chu
- Writers
-
Gregory Maguire
, Winnie Holzman
, Dana Fox
, L. Frank Baum - Cast
-
Cynthia Erivo
, Ariana Grande
, Michelle Yeoh
, Jeff Goldblum
, Jonathan Bailey
, Ethan Slater
, Marissa Bode
, Bowen Yang
, Bronwyn James
, Keala Settle
, Peter Dinklage
, Aaron Teoh
, Grecia De la Paz
, Colin Michael Carmichael
, Adam James
, Andy Nyman
, Courtney Mae-Briggs
, Sharon D. Clarke
, Jenna Boyd
Wicked burst onto the scene as a very real Oscars contender in many categories, including Best Picture. The 2024 adaptation of the first half of the acclaimed Broadway musical has garnered nearly universal praise from critics and audiences alike. Wicked is one of the biggest crowd-pleasers of the year, not to mention one of the biggest box office performers. With its impressive musical numbers, costumes, production, and stellar performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Wicked has quickly become considered a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination.
Musicals do not have the best history of winning Best Picture, but that could be different this year. Wicked is already surprising with its precursor wins, most notably with its Best Film win from the National Board of Review. The movie arguably needed to win the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy to really start mounting its case to win Best Picture, which it did not. The PGA nomination is a good step towards a Best Picture nomination still.
5
A Complete Unknown
Release Date: December 25, 2024
- Cast
-
Timothée Chalamet
, Edward Norton
, Elle Fanning
, Monica Barbaro
, Nick Offerman
, Boyd Holbrook
, P.J. Byrne
, Scoot McNairy
, Dan Fogler
, Will Harrison
, Charlie Tahan
, Jon Gennari
, Norbert Leo Butz - Studio(s)
-
Searchlight Pictures
, The Picture Company
, Automatik Entertainment - Distributor(s)
-
Searchlight Pictures
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is an expected contender for the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race. Starring Timothée Chalamet as the iconic musician, the movie will look to join the list of music biopics that received Best Picture nominations. The Academy shows plenty of favor to true stories, especially those that revolve around massive pop culture figures and have the kind of star power in front of and behind the camera as A Complete Unknown.
James Mangold previously got a Best Picture nomination for a true story movie with Ford v. Ferrari
A Complete Unknown was viewed as a strong contender even before its release thanks to Mangold’s history and Searchlight’s strong Oscars past. Now that it is out, the film is right in the middle of the pack for Best Picture contenders. It has Golden Globes and PGA nominations to help its case, but the biopic really needs a boost to get it into a stronger position. A Complete Unknown is in the secondary group of potential winners as a result.
4
The Brutalist
Release Date: December 20, 2024
- Director
-
Brady Corbet
- Cast
-
Adrien Brody
, Guy Pearce
, Felicity Jones
, Joe Alwyn
, Raffey Cassidy
, Stacy Martin
, Emma Laird
, Isaach De Bankole
, Alessandro Nivola
, Michael Epp
, Jonathan Hyde
, Peter Polycarpou
, Salvatore Sansone
, Ariane Labed
, Jeremy Wheeler
, Jaymes Butler
, Matt Devere
, Natalie Shinnick
, Stephen Saracco
, Peter Linka
, Robert Jackson - Writers
-
Brady Corbet
, Mona Fastvold
The Brutalist has emerged as a major contender for the Best Picture Oscar in 2025. The three-and-a-half-hour historical epic left a major impression on audiences following its premiere at Venice and subsequent showings at Toronto. It was enough to get A24 to acquire the project, which hails from director Brady Corbet and stars Oscar-winner Adrien Brody and Oscar-nominee Felicity Jones, and give it a late December 2024 release date.
While the end-of-year release date can hurt films at times, that is less of a concern for The Brutalist thanks to its reception at festivals. The movie is already mounting support in many other categories – like Best Director, Best Editing, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor – and that should only bolster its Best Picture potential. It won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, which helps show how strong of a contender it is. That’s as long as The Brutalist‘s AI controversy does not hurt its standing.
3
Emilia Pérez
Release Date: November 1, 2024
- Director
-
Jacques Audiard
- Release Date
-
November 13, 2024
- Cast
-
Karla Sofía Gascón
, Zoe Saldana
, Selena Gomez
, Adriana Paz
, Edgar Ramirez
, Mark Ivanir
, Eduardo Aladro
, Emiliano Edmundo Hasan Jalil
, James Gerard
, Eric Geynes
, Agathe Bokja
, Chun-Ting Lin
, Stéphane Ly-Cuong
, Line Phé
, Pascal Toussirot
, Karla Lazo - Runtime
-
130 Minutes
- Studio(s)
-
Why Not Productions
, Saint Laurent
, Page 114
, Pathé
, France 2 Cinéma
, LPI Media
, Pimienta Films
, The Veterans - Writers
-
Jacques Audiard
, Thomas Bidegain
, Léa Mysius
Winner of the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, Emilia Pérez is a boundary-pushing contender for Oscars glory. Starring Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Selena Gomez, the movie mixes musical sensibilities with the story of a cartel leader undergoing sex reassignment surgery with the help of a disaffected lawyer. With original songs and virtuoso performances across the board, the movie quickly established an impressive reputation.
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Although its content may, in some years, have been considered too unconventional for the Oscars, there are other indicators that Emilia Pérez is on track to succeed. Not only was it nominated for a Palme d’Or, but the movie’s combined cast received the Best Actress award as a collective ensemble. After finishing as a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, winning Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, and getting a PGA nomination, Emilia Pérez is building a necessary resume to be a Best Picture winner.
2
Conclave
Release: October 25, 2024
- Director
-
Edward Berger
- Release Date
-
October 25, 2024
- Cast
-
Ralph Fiennes
, Stanley Tucci
, John Lithgow
, Isabella Rossellini
, Lucian Msamati
, Carlos Diehz
, Sergio Castellitto
, Brian F. O’Byrne
, Merab Ninidze
, Jacek Koman
, Rony Kramer
, Joseph Mydell - Runtime
-
120 Minutes
- Writers
-
Peter Straughan
, Robert Harris
Based on the best-selling novel by author Robert Harris, Conclave combines a stacked cast with a gripping story – potentially creating the ideal Best Picture formula. Featuring the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini, the movie concerns a Papal election and an intriguing mystery. Not only does the talent aligned in front of the camera contain multiple Academy Award nominees, but Conclave is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project, All Quiet On The Western Front, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023.
The drama looks to be in a good position to get a Best Picture nomination, as most concerns about the unexpected tone noted in some Conclave reviews negatively impacting its chances have faded. It’s an old-fashioned drama-thriller that is racking up necessary nominations at the Golden Globes, PGA, and more. With Berger’s sharp directing and Fiennes’ performance putting him in consideration for a 2025 Oscars Best Actor nomination, Conclave is a very serious threat to win Best Picture. However, since Focus Features has never won the Best Picture Oscar despite 12 previous nominations, Conclave will have to make history.
1
Anora
Release Date: October 18, 2024
- Director
-
Sean Baker
- Release Date
-
October 18, 2024
- Cast
-
Mikey Madison
, Mark Eydelshteyn
, Karren Karagulian
, Yuriy Borisov
, Vache Tovmasyan
, Ivy Wolk
, Luna Sofía Miranda
, Ross Brodar
, Lindsey Normington
, Darya Ekamasova
, Emily Weider
, Alena Gurevich
, Masha Zhak
, Paul Weissman
, Charlton Lamar
, Aleksey Serebryakov
, Ella Rubin
, Vincent Radwinsky
, Michael Sergio
, Brittney Rodriguez
, Sophia Carnabuci
, Anton Bitter
, Zoë Vnak - Runtime
-
139 Minutes
- Studio(s)
-
Cre Film
, FilmNation Entertainment - Writers
-
Sean Baker
Arguably the most anticipated movie to come out of Cannes 2024, Anora is a frontrunner for the Oscars and our predicted Best Picture winner. An atypical romance that shines a light on the world of sex work, Anora has enjoyed critical acclaim – receiving a 10-minute standing ovation from festival-goers after its premiere. Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising that the movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or. This success positioned the film to continue riding high once Neon boarded the film as a distributor and awards campaign partner.
Neon has a solid track record with the Oscars, including helping push Parasite to be the Best Picture winner in 2020 after it also was the Palme d’Or winner. The studio will look to give Anora a similar campaign and position it as the film to beat. Currently, Neon has done just that. Nominations are expected for the film across many categories, with Mikey Madison’s Best Actress odds looking strong. It’s already been recognized by the Golden Globes, NBR, Gotham Awards, Film Independent Spirit Awards, AFI, PGA, and plenty of critics groups, so the Oscars should be next.